Respons Nilai Tukar Terhadap Guncangan Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Cadangan Devisa dan Neraca Perdagangan : Analisis VECM Indonesia 1970-2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/nn8sr520Keywords:
Nilai Tukar Rupiah, VECM, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Cadangan Devisa, Inflasi, Neraca PerdaganganAbstract
Nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami penurunan terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat sepanjang tahun 2026, meskipun indikator makroekonomi dalam negeri tetap stabil, yang menunjukkan ada perbedaan antara teori dan fakta di lapangan. Tujuan dilaksanakannya penelitian yakni untuk menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, cadangan devisa, serta neraca perdagangan terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah di Indonesia selama periode 1970 sampai 2025. Analisis ini mempergunakan pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) berdasarkan data tahunan sekunder yang diambil dari World Bank. Hasil perkiraan menunjukkan bahwa jumlah uang yang beredar dan cadangan devisa memengaruhi nilai tukar dalam jangka waktu yang lama, sementara inflasi dan neraca perdagangan tidak terbukti memengaruhi secara signifikan.
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