Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Kopi Internasional dan PDB sebagai Determinan Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat (2014-2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/ffs7ea21Keywords:
Real Exchange Rate; International Coffee Prices; Gross Domestic Product; Export Volume; Coffee; United States.Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of the real rupiah exchange rate, international coffee prices, and the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Indonesia's coffee export volume to the United States. This research employed a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis. Secondary data were obtained from Bank Indonesia, the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) of St. Louis, and the International Trade Centre (ITC), resulting in a total of 48 observations. The findings indicate that the real rupiah exchange rate has no significant effect on Indonesia's coffee export volume to the United States, suggesting that the export volume responds to exchange rate fluctuations only in the long run. International coffee prices have a positive and significant effect, indicating that higher coffee prices encourage producers and exporters to increase export volumes. Meanwhile, the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a negative and significant effect, which is presumed to be attributable to the structural dominance of premium coffee-exporting countries in the U.S. market. These findings are expected to provide valuable insights for the government and business actors in formulating strategies to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee exports in the United States market.
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